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Hi, everyone. I know I've sort of disappeared recently. I've been alternating between not having the time and not having the motivation to blog. I expect things will get back to normal within a few more weeks, though.
What's been happening? The most exciting thing from where I am is the bank run (1 2) on English bank Northern Rock. This is an actual bank run in a first-world economy! Wow! It kind of makes me want to watch Mary Poppins (but I'm weird).
Domestically, the stealth Fed rate cut has continued far longer than I thought it would. A quarter-point cut in the target rate is absolutely baked in, and many people are speculating that they'll cut more than a quarter point.
The credit crunch is still in its early stages. Troubles in the mortgage industry are going to continue for years. I've already read many stories of business credit drying up. There will be a recession… or, if the Fed overreacts, a burst of inflation.
I haven't decided the best way to invest for this. Since mid-July I lost $30,000 in one month and then gained it all back the next month. (I've been more fortunate than some.) I haven't made any investment moves in the past two months, instead just letting cash build up as I consider my options and look for new information. It's a lot easier to think of things to stay away from than to think of things to go into! It would be a lot easier to predict things if the Fed wasn't around tinkering with the system. Another reason to shut it down. ;)
In local event news, the Oregon Symphony is performing Rachmaninoff's Second Piano Concerto at the end of the month. It's not sold out yet, although to my great disappointment I learned it is too late to get excellent seats.